1. India will become third largest economy by 2035 : CEBR
Tags: Economy/Finance National News
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a British consultancy, has said India will become the third largest economy by 2035 from the current fifth spot.
Important facts
According to the report India will become the third economic superpower by 2037 and a $10-trillion economy by 2035.
The report says that the world is heading towards recession.
However, over the next five years, the annual rate of India's GDP growth is expected to average 6.4%, after which it is expected to grow at average 6.5% in the subsequent nine years.
This growth trajectory will see India rise from fifth place on the World Economic League Table in 2022 to third in the global rankings by 2037.
According to the report, the pandemic had a devastating impact and India had the third highest death rate globally, yet the economy improved.
According to the report, by 2037, world GDP will double as developing economies catch up with the rich.
The changing balance of power will see East Asia and the Pacific region account for more than a third of global output by 2037, while Europe's share will drop to less than a fifth.
The global economy is set to surpass $100 trillion for the first time in 2022 but will stall in 2023 as policy makers continue their battle against rising prices.
About Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR)
It was formerly called the Bureau of Business Research.
It is an economic policy and forecasting research centre and is headquartered in the USA.
CBER research encompasses health care, regional economies, public finance, energy sector studies and transportation.
2. India to become 3rd largest Economy in the world by 2037; CEBR
Tags: Reports Economy/Finance
The United Kingdom based economics consultancy firm Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted that India will become the third-largest economy by 2037.
Its annual report titled ‘World Economic League Table’ tracks macroeconomic developments globally and countrywise. It presents forecasts for 191 countries of the world.
According to the 14th edition of the report released on 26 December 2022, it says that in the next five years India's annual economic growth is expected to average 6.4%. After that, the growth is expected to average 6.5% in the subsequent nine years.
It expects the Indian economy to grow by 6.8% in 2022-23.
The reported growth trajectory will see India rise from fifth place on the World Economic League Table’ in 2022 to third in the global rankings by 2037 after China and the United States of America.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India is expected to become the 3rd largest economy in the world by 2027-28. According to the SBI EcoWrap report India is likely to become the 3rd largest economy in 2029.
According to the IMF India is likely to overtake Great Britain and become the 5th largest economy in 2022-23 after the United States, China, Japan and Germany.
3. India ranks third globally in Scientific Publications
Tags: INDEX National News
India has jumped to the third position in the global ranking in scientific publications, Science and Technology Minister Jitendra Singh said on 18 December after a review of the functioning of the ministry.
Important facts
According to a report by America’s National Science Foundation India’s position globally in scientific publications, has improved from 7th position in 2010 to 3rd position in 2020.
India’s scholarly output increased from 60,555 papers in 2010 to 1,49,213 papers in 2020.
India also ranks third globally in the number of PhD degrees awarded annually.
The number of patents granted to Indian scientists by the India Patent Office has more than doubled in the last four years.
The number of patents granted to Indian scientists in the India Patent Office (IPO) during the last three years has increased from 2511 in 2018-19 to 4003 in 2019-20 and 5629 in 2020-21.
The Global Innovation Index (GII) 2022 released by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) also saw an improvement in India's innovation ranking from 81st position in 2014 to 40th position in 2022.
About National Science Foundation (NSF)
It is an independent agency of the U S government that supports fundamental research and education in all the non-medical fields of science and engineering.
It was established by the US Congress under the National Science Foundation Act of 1950.
The NSF grants funding for research in biological sciences, geosciences, mathematics, physical sciences, Arctic and Antarctic research, social, behavioural, and economic sciences etc.
4. India the first country in the world to receive $100 billion in remittances: World Bank
Tags: Reports Economy/Finance
According to the World Bank report “Migration and Development Brief’, India is set to receive $100 billion as remittance in 2022 an increase of 12% as compared to 2021. .In 2021 India had received $89.4 billion in remittances. India is the first country in the world to receive $100 billion in remittances from migrant workers abroad.
What are remittances?
Remittance means transfers of funds. Remittances are of two types, Inward and outbound. If a person sends money to India from abroad then it is inward remittance. If a person from India sends money to a person abroad it is called outward remittance. The World Bank reports talks about inward remittances.
Thus here remittance means money that has been transferred to Indians by non-resident Indians (NRIs) employed outside the country to family, friends or relatives residing in India.
Reason for Increase in remittances to India
According to the World Bank one of the main reasons for the increase in flow of remittance to India was the wage hike and a strong labour market in the United States of America.
Highly-skilled Indian migrants living in wealthy nations such as the US, UK, and Singapore were sending more money home
Highlights of the World Bank report on Remittance to India.
- According to the World Bank there has been a significant change in the pattern of remittances and in the direction of Indian migrants' destinations.
- Earlier the migration was dominated by low skill migrants to 5 GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar). They got low wages and hence they were able to send only smaller amounts to their relatives back home.
- Now highly skilled India’s are migrating to countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand where they earn high wages.
- Quoting the RBI report the World Bank says that “between 2016–17 and 2020–21, the share of remittances from the United States, United Kingdom, and Singapore increased from 26 percent to over 36 percent.
- In the same time period the share from the 5 GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar) dropped from 54 to 28 percent.
- With a share of 23 percent of total remittances, the United States surpassed the United Arab Emirates as the top source country in 2020–21.
- About 20 percent of India’s emigrants are in the United States and the United Kingdom.
Other key points of the World Bank Report
India was the largest recipient of remittance in the world followed by Mexico (2nd position), China (3rd), Egypt (4th) and the Philippines (5th).
Remittances to low and middle-income countries have grown by 5% in 2022 to around $626 billion.
Barring India and Nepal. Other south Asian countries saw a decline of more than 10% in their remittances from 2021, due to the end of government incentives introduced during the pandemic.
Other Important World Bank reports
- World Development Report
- Global Economic Prospect
- Business Enabling Environment (It will replace the Ease of Doing Business report). It will be launched in April 2024.
President of World Bank: David Malpass
5. S&P lowers India GDP growth forecast by 30 bps to 7%in 2022-23
Tags: Economy/Finance
Standard & Poor (S&P) Global Ratings in a report released on 28 November 2022 has lowered India's GDP growth forecast for 2022-23 by 30 bps to 7 percent. It has also reduced the forecast for the GDP growth rate in 2023-24 to 6 percent. 100 basis points (bps) = 1%
The credit rating agency had in September projected India's economic growth at 7.3 percent for the current fiscal.
S&P is the latest agency which has downgraded India’s growth prospect in 2022-23. Earlier OECD had cut India’s expected growth rate to 6.6% in 2022. RBI expects the Indian economy to grow by 7 % in 2022-23.
6. OECD cuts India growth rate forecast to 6.6 %in 2022 and warns of slow world economic growth
Tags: Reports Economy/Finance
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has cut the expected growth rate of the Indian economy in 2022 to 6.6% from its earlier forecast of 6.9% but it has retained its earlier forecast of 5.7% in 2023.
In its latest Economic Outlook report released on 22 November 2022 the OECD expects the world Economy to grow by 3.1% down sharply from 5.9% growth in 2021. It expects the growth to be 2.2 % in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024.
The report says that Europe has been hit hardest due to the Russia -Ukraine war and the consequent high energy prices. The 19 country’s Eurozone is expected to grow by 3.3% this year then slow to 0.5% in 2023 before recovering to grow by 1.4% in 2024.
The biggest European economy Germany is expected to contract by -0.3% in 2022.
World’s largest economy, the U.S. is expected to grow by 1.8% this year, 0.5% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024.
China, which is not an OECD member, was one of the few major economies expected to see growth pick up next year. Growth there was seen rising from 3.3% this year to 4.6% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024.
Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
It was set upon 16 December 1960 by 18 European countries and the United States, Canada. It is a think tank which supports the free market economy.
The OECD publishes economic reports, statistical databases, analyses, and forecasts on the outlook for economic growth worldwide.
At present it has 38 member countries from Europe, South America, Asia and North America.
India, China are not members of OECD.
Headquarters: Paris, France.
7. World Toilet Day
Tags: Important Days
Every year on 19 November 'World Toilet Day' is celebrated.
Important facts
According to the World Health Organization report, currently around 360 crore people around the world are deprived of toilets.
According to the 2011 census in India, 67 percent of households in villages and 13 percent of households in cities practise open defecation.
According to the Research Institute of Compassionate Economics, despite 40 percent of the country's households having toilets, one member from each household regularly goes to open defecation.
To change this thinking of the people and keep cleanliness in mind, 'World Toilet Day' is celebrated every year on 19th November.
The Government of India also celebrates this day as a part of its Swachh Bharat Mission with an aim to promote awareness about cleanliness.
The Department of Drinking Water & Sanitation (DDWS), Ministry of Jal Shakti, under the Swachh Bharat Mission (Grameen) is organising ‘Swachhta Run’ across rural India, to mark the World Toilet Day.
Theme of 2022
The 2022 theme is ‘Making the Invisible Visible’.
The theme explores how inadequate sanitation systems spread human waste into rivers, lakes and soil and polluting underground water resources.
The theme focuses on groundwater sanitation.
Background of the day
It was an initiative started by Singaporean Jack Sim, who founded an NGO called the World Toilet Organization in the year 2001.
The United Nations also recognized the right to water and sanitation as a fundamental human right in 2010.
On 24 July 2013, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in its 67th session passed a resolution designating 19 November as World Toilet Day.
The UNGA resolution titled 'Sanitation for All' encouraged increasing access to public health and sanitation, especially for people from the poorer sections of society.
8. 2020-2030 to be India’s Decade and India to become world’s 3rd largest economy and market: Morgan Stanley
Tags: Economy/Finance
In a report titled 'Why This Is India's Decade' the American Investment Banking firm Morgan Stanley expects India to become the world’s third-largest economy and market and India will account for fifth of the global economic growth in the next decade.
Morgan Stanley projection is in line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection of India becoming the 3rd largest economy by 2027-28 and SBI’s of India achieving this milestone in 2029.
However the report says that these forecasts will depend on favourable domestic and global factors.
Main highlights of the Morgan Stanley report
- India's GDP is set to double from the current $3.4 trillion to $8.5 trillion over the next decade. It expects India to add more than $400 billion to its GDP every year, a scale that is only surpassed by the US and China,
- Four key factors demographics, digitalization, decarbonization and deglobalization are likely to facilitate India's rapid rise,
- Manufacturing’s share of GDP will rise from 15.6% currently to 21% by 2031, which implies nominal output jumping from $447 billion to about $1.49 trillion,”
- The number of households earning in excess of $35,000 a year is likely to rise fivefold in the coming decade, to over 25 million.
- India’s private consumption will more than double from $ 2 trillion in 2022 to $ 4.5 trillion by the end of the decade, a size that would be roughly similar to China in 2015,
- India's global export market share is expected to more than double at 4.5 per cent by 2031,
- India's services exports will almost treble to USD 527 billion (from USD 178 billion in 2021) over the next decade.
- E-commerce penetration to nearly double from 6.5 per cent to 12.3 per cent by 2031.
- Internet users in India will increase from 650 million to 960 million while online shoppers will grow from 250 million to 700 million over the next 10 years.
- Around 25 percent of incremental global car sales over 2021-2030 will be from India and it expects 30 percent of 2030 passenger vehicle sales to be electric-run.
- India should hit a "major inflection point" for the next residential property boom in 2030 - a confluence of high per-capita income, a mid-30s median age, and higher urbanization.
- India's workforce in the technology services sector will more than double from 5.1 million in 2021 to 12.2 million in 2031.
- Healthcare penetration in India can rise from 30-40 per cent now to 60-70 per cent which will lead to 400 million new entrants to the formal healthcare system.
- Over USD 700 billion in energy investments are expected over the next decade as India accelerates its energy transition.
About Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley is an American Multinational Investment banking firm which was set up in 1935 in New York City.
It is primarily in the business of wealth management, Investment banking, and brokerage and provides other financial services.
Headquarters: New York City, United States of America
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer: James P Gorman
9. PM Modi to gift Himachal Pradesh artifact to the G20 leaders in the Bali summit
Tags: Summits Person in news State News
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will gift various artifacts of Himachal Pradesh to the world leaders at the 17th G20 summit to be held at Bali, Indonesia on 15-16 November 2022. India will formally take over the G20 Presidency from Indonesia from 1 December 2022 and it will host the 18th G20 summit in 2023.
According to the newspaper reports the Prime Minister Modi will present Chamba Rumal, Kangra miniature paintings, Kinnauri Shawl, Himachali Mukhate, Kullu Shawl, and Kanal Brass Set to the world leaders as an attempt to boost the Himachal’s art and culture across the globe.
The Prime Minister unveiled the logo, theme, and website of India’s G20 Presidency via video-conferencing on 8 November 2022.
G-20 is the premier forum for international economic cooperation representing around 85 percent of the global GDP, over 75 per cent of the worldwide trade, and about two-thirds of the world population.. G-20 is a group of 19 countries and the European Union.
10. At least 15,000 killed by Heat Wave in Europe this year : WHO
Tags: International News
The World Health Organization (WHO) on 8 November said, at least 15,000 people have died in Europe because of heat waves this year so far.
Important facts
According to reports recorded by health officials during the 3 months of summer, there have been nearly 4,000 deaths in Spain, more than 1,000 in Portugal, more than 3,200 in the United Kingdom and about 4,500 in Germany.
The three months of June-August were the hottest in Europe.
For example, France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) reported that more than 11 000 people died between 1 June and 22 August 2022, compared to the same period in 2019.
Temperatures in Europe have warmed significantly over the period 1961–2021 at an average rate of about 0.5 °C per decade.
According to a report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), it is the fastest warming region.
More than 148,000 people have lost their lives due to extreme temperatures in the European region in the past 50 years.
World Health Organisation (WHO)
The World Health Organisation is a specialised agency of the United Nations which was founded on 7 April, 1948.
Headquarters of WHO : Geneva, Switzerland
Members : 194 countries
Director General of WHO: Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of Ethiopia.
